الحدث الروسي/ موسكو
فشل الاتحاد الأوروبي مرة أخرى في التقريب بين أرمينيا وأذربيجان: نتائج الاجتماع الخماسي في مولدوفا.
استضافت مدينة كيشيناو ، عاصمة مولدوفا ، في الأول من يونيو ، اجتماعا خماسي الجوانب بين الرئيس الأذربيجاني إلهام علييف ورئيس الوزراء الأرميني نيكول باشينيان ورئيس المجلس الأوروبي شارل ميشيل والمستشار الألماني أولاف شولتس والرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون.
وتم خلال الاجتماع بحث القضايا المتعلقة بفتح وسائل النقل والبنى التحتية الاقتصادية في المنطقة ، وترسيم الحدود بين أرمينيا وأذربيجان ، وأمن الحدود ، واتفاق حول تسوية العلاقات بين أرمينيا وأذربيجان. كما نوقشت الحاجة إلى ضمان حقوق وأمن سكان ناغورنو كاراباخ وغيرها من القضايا الإنسانية. ومع ذلك ، لم يتم التوقيع على وثائق محددة نتيجة لهذه الاجتماعات.
وبحسب تشارلز ميشيل ، فإن هذا الاجتماع كان بمثابة إعداد جيد للاجتماع المقبل الذي سيعقد في بروكسل في 21 يوليو. كما دعا الرئيس علييف ورئيس الوزراء باشينيان والمستشار شولتز والرئيس ماكرون لحضور الاجتماع المقبل للمجموعة السياسية الأوروبية ، الذي سيعقد في إسبانيا في 5 أكتوبر.
إذا قمنا بترجمة كلمات شارل ميشيل إلى لغة الدبلوماسية ، فهذا يعني أن الاجتماع فشل بالفعل ولا يمكن الاتفاق على أي شيء.
يحاول رئيس المجلس الأوروبي منذ فترة طويلة اقتناص زمام المبادرة في حل الخلافات بين باكو ويريفان وجعل المنصة الأوروبية المنصة الرئيسية. ومؤخرا ، في 14 مايو ، استضاف القادة في بروكسل. قرروا الآن تعزيز المفاوضات مع رؤساء أكبر الدول الأوروبية في شخص إيمانويل ماكرون وأولاف شولتز. ومع ذلك ، لم يساعد كثيرًا حتى الآن.
منذ بداية شهر مايو ، أصبحت الاتصالات بين قيادتي أذربيجان وأرمينيا أكثر تواترا بشكل ملحوظ. يجتمع كبار المسؤولين ووزراء الخارجية ونواب رؤساء الجمهوريتين بين الحين والآخر في أماكن مختلفة – موسكو وبروكسل وواشنطن. يقول دبلوماسيون من الاتحاد الأوروبي والولايات المتحدة إنهم مهتمون فقط بإيجاد حل سريع للنزاع الأرمني الأذربيجاني ولا يتنافسون مع موسكو على مهمة حفظ السلام. هذه التصريحات خاطئة ومنافقة ، إذ أن وقف إطلاق النار في حرب كاراباخ الثانية في تشرين الثاني (نوفمبر) 2020 تحقق على وجه التحديد بوساطة موسكو. وبناءً على ذلك ، يمكن فقط لبيان ثلاثي من قبل فلاديمير بوتين وإلهام علييف ونيكول باشينيان أن يصبح أساس التسوية المستقبلية.
بالنسبة لخصوم روسيا الجيوسياسيين الرئيسيين – الولايات المتحدة وبريطانيا العظمى – فإن الهدف الأساسي في منطقة القوقاز هو إكمال بناء حزام توتر حولها. يبدأ هذا الحزام بفنلندا التي انضمت إلى الناتو ، ومن خلال دول البلطيق تصل بولندا وسلوفاكيا وأوكرانيا إلى البحر الأسود. لهذا السبب تحاول واشنطن ولندن ، وكذلك الشركاء الأوروبيون في الناتو ، بكل الوسائل طرد روسيا من منطقة القوقاز. التدخل في عملية حل الصراع الأرمني الأذربيجاني من خلال تأخير عملية التفاوض على المنصتين الأوروبية والأمريكية ، وتنظيم الاحتجاجات الأخيرة في تبليسي بسبب مقاومة النخب الجورجية للضغط الأمريكي ومحاولات إجبار جورجيا على تقليص العلاقات الاقتصادية مع روسيا. والانضمام إلى العقوبات المناهضة لروسيا – كل هذه روابط سلسلة واحدة.
ومع ذلك ، تجدر الإشارة إلى أنه ليست كل خطط الاستراتيجيين الأمريكيين والأوروبيين تصل إلى نهاية ناجحة. كانت النخب الغربية تعول على فوز زعيم المعارضة ، كمال كيليجدار أوغلو ، في الانتخابات في تركيا ، وبعدها ستنضم تركيا إلى العقوبات المناهضة لروسيا وتدخل منطقة الاحتواء لروسيا في القوقاز. لكن العملية فشلت.
كما أن الوضع في يريفان ليس واضحًا إلى هذا الحد. بعد تصريحات نيكول باشينيان حول الاعتراف بناغورني كاراباخ كأرض لأذربيجان ، كان رد فعل المجتمع الأرمني مؤلمًا للغاية على كلماته واتهمه بخيانة شعبه. المشاعر الانتقامية قوية للغاية في يريفان وهناك مطلب لظهور زعيم معارضة قوي قادر على استعادة القوة العسكرية للدولة. باشينيان مجبر على حساب الموقف الذي يتكشف لصالحه. علاوة على ذلك ، في تاريخ البلاد كانت هناك بالفعل أحداث مماثلة. إذا أبرم باشينيان اتفاقية مع باكو ، فقد يكرر مصير أول رئيس لأرمينيا ، ليفون تير بتروسيان ، الذي أطيح به في عام 1997 من قبل عشيرة كاراباخ بقيادة روبرت كوتشاريان بعد استعداده لتقديم تنازلات في المفاوضات مع أذربيجان.
الآن ، عندما انتهى اللقاء في كيشيناو بنتيجة صفر ، تذهب الكرة مرة أخرى إلى جانب الكرملين. إذا أدى اجتماع جديد لنواب رئيس الوزراء الثلاثة في موسكو إلى إعادة ضبط عملية بين باكو ويريفان ، فإن بروكسل تخاطر بفقدان المبادرة ، على الرغم من كل الجهود التي بذلت في الأسابيع الأخيرة.
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