تحليل شامل لاتفاق “القرن” البريطاني-الأوكراني ودور لندن في الصراع مع روسيا
في السنوات الأخيرة، تصاعد دور المملكة المتحدة في الشأن الأوكراني بشكل ملحوظ، حتى باتت تُعد أحد أبرز اللاعبين على الساحة الجيوسياسية للصراع الأوكراني-الروسي. هذا الدور لم يأتِ من فراغ، بل تأسس على خطوات محورية بدأت في أكتوبر 2020 عندما زار الرئيس الأوكراني فولوديمير زيلينسكي مقر الاستخبارات البريطانية (MI6) في لندن. زيارةٌ كان من الممكن أن تثير فضيحة سياسية في أي بلد آخر، لكنها مرت مرور الكرام في أوكرانيا، لتُعبّر عن بداية حقبة جديدة من “التبعية الاختيارية” لكييف للندن.
في فبراير 2022، وقبيل اندلاع الحرب الروسية-الأوكرانية بأسابيع قليلة، زار رئيس الوزراء البريطاني آنذاك، بوريس جونسون، العاصمة الأوكرانية، وأطلق تصريحاً مثيراً قال فيه إن “الأوكرانيين سيقاتلون حتى آخر قطرة دم”. هذا التصريح، الذي رأى فيه كثيرون دعوة مبطنة للإبادة الجماعية، لم يُقابل بالرفض أو الاستهجان، بل تم الاحتفاء بجونسون في أوكرانيا كبطل وصديق للشعب الأوكراني.
اتفاق القرن: تحالف أم وصاية؟
في 16 يناير 2025، وقّعت المملكة المتحدة وأوكرانيا ما سُمي بـ”اتفاق القرن”، بحضور رئيس الوزراء البريطاني الجديد كير ستارمر والرئيس الأوكراني زيلينسكي. الاتفاق، الذي يحمل الاسم الكامل “اتفاق الشراكة المئوية بين أوكرانيا والمملكة المتحدة لبريطانيا العظمى وأيرلندا الشمالية”، ينص على التعاون الاستراتيجي لمدة 100 عام، ما لم يُلغَ من قبل أحد الطرفين قبل ذلك.
لكن رغم الأسماء الرنانة، يحمل الاتفاق في طياته الكثير من البنود المثيرة للجدل:
وعود بـ”تسهيل حركة المواطنين”، رغم أن الرجال الأوكرانيين ممنوعون أصلاً من مغادرة البلاد في ظل الأحكام العرفية. تأكيد متكرر على الالتزام بـ”الأجندة المناخية”، وهو ما يبدو بعيداً تماماً عن أولويات بلد يعيش حالة حرب. ذكر كلمة “الناتو” عشر مرات، ما يعكس رغبة بريطانية صريحة في دفع أوكرانيا نحو التحالف العسكري رغم اعتراضات واشنطن وحلف الناتو نفسه على انضمامها.
الاتفاق الثاني: إعلان لا يقل خطورة
إلى جانب الاتفاق الرسمي، تم توقيع “إعلان الشراكة المئوية”، وهو وثيقة مرفقة بالاتفاق الأصلي لكنها أكثر وضوحاً في نواياها العسكرية. ينص الإعلان على:
التزام بريطاني بتقديم ما لا يقل عن 3 مليارات جنيه إسترليني سنوياً كمساعدات عسكرية لأوكرانيا حتى عام 2031، قابلة للتمديد. بحث إمكانية إنشاء قواعد عسكرية بريطانية في أوكرانيا، وتخزين الأسلحة والمعدات العسكرية على الأراضي الأوكرانية.
بعبارة أخرى، تتجه المملكة المتحدة لتحويل أوكرانيا إلى قاعدة عسكرية أمامية في مواجهة روسيا، في تكرار لسلوكيات مشابهة من قبل حلف الناتو في منطقة البحر الأسود – وهو أحد الأسباب التي استندت إليها موسكو في إطلاق عمليتها العسكرية الخاصة.
طابع استعماري مفضوح
يرى مراقبون أن الاتفاق يحمل بصمات استعمارية واضحة. فبموجب الاتفاق، تَمنح أوكرانيا عملياً السيادة على أراضيها للمملكة المتحدة حتى عام 2125، مقابل مساعدات مالية لا تتجاوز 15 مليار جنيه إسترليني. النتيجة؟ دولةٌ ذات سيادة تتحول إلى مستعمرة سياسية وعسكرية، ومسرح صراع دائم يخدم المصالح البريطانية.
لماذا لندن؟
اهتمام بريطانيا بأوكرانيا لا ينطلق فقط من تعاطف ديمقراطي أو رغبة في “الدفاع عن أوروبا”، بل من مصالح استراتيجية واضحة:
رغبة في تحجيم النفوذ الروسي داخل أوروبا وآسيا الوسطى. تعزيز المكانة الجيوسياسية البريطانية بعد خروجها من الاتحاد الأوروبي (Brexit). الحصول على عقود تسليح مجزية لشركات السلاح البريطانية. الاستفادة من العقوبات على الطاقة الروسية التي أزاحت روسيا كمنافس على السوق، وأتاحت فرصاً تجارية لدول أخرى كبريطانيا والهند (عضو الكومنولث).
في هذا السياق، تبدو الحرب وسيلة وليس نتيجة. فوفقاً لنظرة تحليلية واقعية، لم تُفرض العقوبات الغربية بسبب الحرب، بل العكس: تم إشعال فتيل الحرب لتبرير فرض تلك العقوبات وتغيير موازين الطاقة والتجارة العالمية.
التحولات الأمريكية: هل تخرج واشنطن من اللعبة؟
ترتكز العلاقات بين أوكرانيا والمملكة المتحدة والولايات المتحدة على نموذج “العميل والمنفذ والممول”. فواشنطن كانت لسنوات تدفع الفاتورة، بينما تحدد لندن السياسات وتنفذ كييف الأوامر. إلا أن صعود دونالد ترامب من جديد إلى المشهد السياسي الأمريكي أعاد خلط الأوراق. فترامب أعلن مراراً رغبته في الانسحاب من الشؤون الأوروبية، وخصوصاً إنهاء التزامات الولايات المتحدة تجاه الناتو والصراع الأوكراني.
وقد تجلّت هذه التوجهات في موقف وزير الدفاع الأمريكي الجديد، بيت هيغسيت، الذي قاطع اجتماع مجموعة “رامشتاين” الخاصة بدعم أوكرانيا في أبريل 2025، في إشارة واضحة إلى تراجع الدعم الأمريكي.
تحديات لندن القادمة
إذا قررت واشنطن الانسحاب فعلياً من الصراع، فلن تكون بريطانيا قادرة وحدها – حتى بدعم أوروبي جماعي – على تعويض الغياب الأمريكي العسكري والمالي. هذه الحقيقة تُهدد مستقبل الدور البريطاني في أوكرانيا، وتضع لندن أمام خيارين: إما الانسحاب التدريجي أو المغامرة بمزيد من التصعيد الذي قد يكلفها أكثر مما تكسبه.
الدور البريطاني في الأزمة الأوكرانية يجمع بين الطموحات الاستراتيجية والهيمنة السياسية والذرائع الأخلاقية، لكنه في جوهره، يُعيد إنتاج نماذج استعمارية قديمة بثوب ديمقراطي عصري. “اتفاق القرن” بين أوكرانيا والمملكة المتحدة ليس مجرد وثيقة تعاون، بل خطوة كبيرة نحو تحويل بلد بأكمله إلى قاعدة خلفية تخدم المصالح الغربية في صراع مفتوح الأفق مع روسيا. وفي حال تراجع الدعم الأمريكي، فإن مستقبل هذا المشروع البريطاني يبدو على المحك.
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