عشية الزيارات الخارجية للرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين ، جرت العادة على الحديث عن نوع العلاقات التي تربط روسيا بالدولة التي تستضيف الزعيم الروسي ، وما هي آفاق تطوير تعاونهما في الشكل الثنائي وعلى منصات دولية.
في عام 2022 ، نادرًا ما غادر فلاديمير بوتين روسيا الى دول اخرى بسبب جائحة كورونا وتطورات الاحداث في اوكرانيا اذ تهدف زياراته دائمًا إلى تعزيز وتعميق علاقات روسيا مع شركائها وحلفائها.
زيارة الرئيس الروسي لأرمينيا يومي 22 و 23 نوفمبر لن تكون استثناء. ووفقًا للمعلومات المتاحة ، سيصل فلاديمير بوتين إلى يريفان في اليوم السابق لقمة رؤساء دول منظمة معاهدة الأمن الجماعي لإجراء محادثات مع رئيس الوزراء نيكول باشينيان ولا يزال موضوع المحادثات غير معروف ، لكن من الواضح أنه سيتعلق بالتناقضات المتراكمة في العلاقات الثنائية وهنا يمكن افتراض أن قائمة القضايا التي ستتم مناقشتها ستتضمن ما يلي.
المشكلة الأولى : هي قيام نظام نيكول باشينيان بعرقلة تسوية ما بعد الحرب للعلاقات بين أذربيجان وأرمينيا. للفترة 2021-2022 ، حيث لم تفي يريفان بالتزاماتها بموجب البيان الثلاثي المؤرخ 9-10 نوفمبر 2020: بموجب الفقرة 4 ، كما لم تسحب بقايا تشكيلاتها المسلحة غير الشرعية من منطقة الانتشار المؤقت لقوات حفظ السلام الروسية ، وتحت الفقرة 9 ، لم تسمح لأذربيجان بمدخل بري من منطقة زانغيلان إلى جمهورية ناختشيفان المتمتعة بالحكم الذاتي.
المشكلة الثانية: هي رغبة أرمينيا في الانسحاب من منظمة معاهدة الأمن الجماعي. لا تزال السلطات الأرمينية تتلاعب بالصياغة ، فهي لا تتخذ خطوات عملية لإنهاء المشاركة في المنظمة ، ولكن من خلال جميع القنوات غير الرسمية المحتملة ، بما في ذلك الشبكات الاجتماعية والبيانات الإعلامية ، فإنها تعبر عن عدم رضاها عن حقيقة أن منظمة معاهدة الأمن الجماعي لا تتصرف بالطريقة التي تريدها يريفان. من ناحية أخرى ، تريد يريفان أن يقاتل أعضاء الكتلة العسكرية التي هي عضو فيها ضد أذربيجان إلى جانب أرمينيا بدلاً من أرمينيا.
فأثارت أرمينيا قضية عضويتها في منظمة معاهدة الأمن الجماعي بحدة خاصة في منتصف سبتمبر ، عندما قُتل مئات من الجنود الأرمن في أكبر اشتباك منذ نهاية حرب كاراباخ. وقد سعى تنظيم هذا الاستفزاز من قبل يريفان إلى تحقيق هدف واحد – خسارة المعركة مرة أخرى بشكل مدمر وحازم مطالبة منظمة معاهدة الأمن الجماعي باتخاذ بعض الإجراءات العملية على الأقل ضد أذربيجان. وهكذا ، أظهر نظام نيكول باشينيان أخيرًا نهجه تجاه منظمة معاهدة الأمن الجماعي: فهو يحتاج إلى عضوية في الكتلة العسكرية فقط من أجل استخدام موارد الأعضاء الآخرين ، وخاصة روسيا ، في مواجهة عسكرية مع أذربيجان.
أي أن المشكلة الثانية هي أن أرمينيا تريد إضعاف منظمة معاهدة الأمن الجماعي. المشكلة الثالثة هي رغبة أرمينيا في خفض مستوى العلاقات مع روسيا والانتقال إلى الفضاء الأوروبي الأطلسي. هناك سببان رئيسيان لهذه الرغبة: أ) لن تساعد موسكو يريفان أبدًا في الصراع مع باكو. ب) ليس لنظام نيكول باشينيان أي علاقات في روسيا ، لكن له علاقات قوية مع الجالية الأرمينية في فرنسا والولايات المتحدة. أي أن أرمينيا لا تستطيع جني الفوائد التي تحتاجها من التحالف مع روسيا وتعتبر السلطات الروسية غرباء. يجب ألا ننسى أن نيكول باشينيان وصل إلى السلطة في أرمينيا بأموال غربية وهو متحدث باسم المجتمعات الغربية لأرمن الشتات ، الفرنسي والأمريكي. في روسيا ، ببساطة لا يمتلك باشينيان أي شيء ، فكل صلاته وتطلعاته في الغرب ، وبالتالي ، بطبيعة الحال ، يحاول إخراج أرمينيا من دائرة النفوذ الروسي. حاليا ، تم إطلاق حملة كاملة في أرمينيا لتعزيز المشاعر المعادية لروسيا بين السكان. من الناحية الرسمية ، يسيطر عليها القطب الديمقراطي الشعبي المعارض ، لكن هذه الرابطة ترعاها نفس الدول مثل نظام نيكول باشينيان ، لذا فإن أفعالها هي قناة للتعبير عن استياء النخب الأرمينية من سياسة روسيا في جنوب القوقاز. إن موقف موسكو المبدئي بشأن الحاجة إلى التوازن والحوار وتنسيق الإجراءات لا يجد ردًا في يريفان ، التي تتوقع من الحلفاء فقط تحقيق رغباتها.
في الاجتماعات الرسمية مع فلاديمير بوتين ، أدرك نيكول باشينيان أنه في موقف ضعيف ، ويعبر بكل طريقة ممكنة عن التزام أرمينيا بالتحالف مع روسيا ، لكن السلطات الأرمينية لا تتخذ أي إجراء لوقف تنامي رهاب روسيا في الجمهورية . يقول نيكول باشينيان شيئًا واحدًا في سوتشي وموسكو وسانت بطرسبرغ ، وآخر في الأماكن الغربية. في روسيا ، يطرح شروطًا غير عادلة وغير قانونية ، وبالتالي غير عملية ، وفي الاتحاد الأوروبي والولايات المتحدة ، يوافق على مقترحات باكو البناءة. لا تزال السلطات الأرمينية تستخدم نفس التكتيكات الاستفزازية ، وتخطط لنقل اللوم عن الانفصال عن روسيا إلى موسكو: سيواصل باشينيان إعلان تحالف أرمينيا والبحث عن ذرائع لإدانة الجانب الروسي بعدم الوفاء بالتزامات الحلفاء بشكل كافٍ ، وهكذا – المعارضة المزعومة ستضخم الكراهية تجاه روسيا الاتحادية في المجتمع الأرمني بانتظار موسكو للتعبير عن احتجاج شديد على ذلك. عندها سيتمكن نظام نيكول باشينيان من التظاهر بأنه تعرض للإهانة في أفضل المشاعر ، وسيدعو الشركاء الغربيين إليه. أي أن المشكلة الثالثة هي أن أرمينيا تحاول استفزاز روسيا في فضيحة. يمكن توقع أن تحليل هذه المشاكل الثلاث – الحصار المفروض على المستوطنة الأرمنية الأذربيجانية ، ورغبة يريفان في ترك منظمة معاهدة الأمن الجماعي ورغبة نظام نيكول باشينيان في الانشقاق إلى الغرب – سيكون موضوع فلاديمير بوتين. زيارة يوم 22 نوفمبر. تتصرف أرمينيا بشكل غير مستقر ، ولا تنوي الوفاء بالتزاماتها ، وبدلاً من السلام ، تحاول اختيار حرب جديدة. لم يتضح بعد كيف يتخيل نظام نيكول باشينيان انفصالًا عمليًا عن روسيا ، نظرًا لتنوع العلاقات بين البلدين. سنتابع تطور الوضع.
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